Dueling Ads

The first ads of the congressional race in Minnesota’s First District have been released.

First let’s take a look at Congressman Walz’s ad:

Transcript:

TIM WALZ: It’s pretty clear – the Bush energy plan is working. For the big oil companies, not for us. I’m Tim Walz. We need a balanced plan that gets us out of this mess for good. Let’s increase oil production here at home, speed up and advance alternative energy, and invest in energy that makes conservation affordable and practical. I approve this message because American ingenuity we can have a real energy plan that ends our dependence on foreign oil and works for us.

My initial impression is that this is a very strong and effective ad for Walz. It has become clear for some time that Davis plans to make this campaign about drilling. In this ad, Walz offers a cogent, tempered, and statesman-like approach to the energy crisis, and I believe it will contrast well with frantic shrieks of “Drill here! Drill now!” It is also a much better rebuttal than Speaker Pelosi’s.

I have one suggestion: I believe that it might have been more effective to feature, by name, the “Walz Bipartisan Energy Plan” that takes a prominent place on Walz’s website. By highlighting that, Walz would have been able to show his constituents in a tangible way what Tim has been working on in Washington. Also, it would have associated Walz with “bipartisanship” – a positive linkage, especially considering the distaste many have for Congress due greatly to hyperpartisan gridlock. He could have even said, as stated on the website, “In July of 2008, Tim and about 20 of his colleagues, both Republicans and Democrats, got fed up with the partisan bickering and finger-pointing in Congress about who is to blame for our energy crisis and decided to do something about it. They kicked the special interests from the room, rolled up their sleeves and got to work to figure out a smart, balanced plan that makes America energy independent.” That would have been a great start to the ad. He should then have talked about responsible drilling. It is important to emphasize the drilling aspect in this way for two reasons. First, most Americans favor drilling. Second, it gives him more credibility than Brian Davis’s reckless “plan” to simply drill anywhere, anytime, no matter what. This is the kind of thing that should be highlighted in the future. It gives Tim Walz “pragmatic cred” especially when juxtaposed next to Dr. Davis’s attack in his ad.

Cue the scary music, it is time to take a look at the ad from Dr. Davis:

Transcript:

NARRATOR: Tim Walz says he’s against drilling for oil in Alaska and offshore. Instead of staying at work to solve our problem of high gas prices, he voted to shut down Congress and take a summer vacation.

BRIAN DAVIS: I’m Brian Davis. I’m not a career politician, but I know that most Americans want to drill here and drill now. If I’m elected to Congress I’ll work to remove all barriers to drilling for our own oil. Our children are relying on us to do the right thing. I’m Brian Davis, and I approve this message.

This ad is a classic 2-part attack ad – attack and end positive. As to its effectiveness, I am not sure. It will definitely help Davis in his primary. In addition to boosting his name recognition, Davis will also appeal to the overwhelming sentiment in the Republican party that we should be drilling. The ad also plays to Tim Walz’s greatest weakness – he is a member of the only governmental institution that has a lower approval rating than Dick Cheney. By talking about “going on vacation” Davis may be able to tap into the sentiment that this Congress has been particularly ineffective. I am not sure the larger effect the drilling attack will have. Many Minnesotans including Norm Coleman, and even John McCain, oppose or at one point opposed (who knows considering McCain’s flip-flops on energy), drilling in Alaska and offshore. Minnesotans tend to favor conservation, so I am not sure if Davis is in line with those views or not. I have not seen any recent polling on this issue from Minnesota, so whether this has changed or not given current gasoline prices is unknown in any quantitative way.

This ad is a lot less substantive than that of Rep. Walz, but that has been the case throughout this campaign – Davis has not provided a lot of specifics on many issues. I suppose this is really the best they had to work with, and given that, this is a fair effort. Davis knows that to win, he must make the incumbent the issue, and it is clear that that is the main intention of this ad. In a year that seems to favor Democrats, however, Dr. Davis may have a hard time accomplishing that.

Check out MN Central's thoughtful analysis of Davis's ad here.

I think in this first skirmish of the ad war, Congressman Walz has definitely come out on top. His ad was substantive and showed Walz as the candidate of ideas. Davis, meanwhile, took the opposite approach, deciding to criticize Walz and provide a somewhat simplistic approach to energy. It will become increasingly clear in the next two months the effects of Davis’s attacks. I argue that Walz must continue to present himself as a pragmatist who works for the people in spite of politics if he wants to keep the people on his side.

Needless to say, this is going to be an interesting two months.